Hitting a big trifecta is a great thrill and certainly good for the old bankroll as long as you don't spend more to hit it than you make on the payoff. The problem is that hitting that big tri is no easy task. If you use long priced horses as your main interest then you will miss quite a few wagers.
As your total losses add up you realize that the big score is thrilling but the long wait between hits is not for the weak hearted or impatient bettor. Switching your focus to short priced horses or even, heavens forbid, favorites, will result in more wins, but as we all know exotic bets with the favorite usually don't pay well and once again, your cost to buy your tickets will probably outweigh your winnings.
Let's take a closer look at how people wager to get a better idea of what might possibly be a profitable betting strategy. First of all, generally speaking, what is true of the win pools is also true of the exotic pools. The way handicappers wager on horses in the straight pools is how they usually wager in the exotics. In fact, many people who are casual players will look at the odds on the tote board in order to choose runners for their trifecta and superfecta bets.
Studies have shown that their are two betting interests that are usually over bet. I would go one step farther and add that they are also used too often in exotics and therefore it is hard to find good value if you key on them. I am talking about long shots and favorites. If you want horses that are more fairly priced and valued closer to their true odds based on the probability of placing in the top three, look for middle priced horses.
I'm not saying that you should never play a longshot or chalk (favorite), but I am saying, that most of your focus should be on those horses that fall into the sweet spot somewhere between. For instance, in a race where the favorite is at 6-5 odds it is tempting to key that one on top over a few longshots. It seems that the chalk is the most likely winner, which it is, and it also seems that those long shots do have a possibility of hitting the board and therefore creating a good payoff in spite of the favorite prevailing.
Half of that logic is correct. The long priced horses do have a chance, albeit a slight one, of completing the trifecta, however, you are not the only one to make that assumption. Remember that those long priced horses are often over bet even though they are at long odds. A more realistic bet with value in mind might be to key one of the mid priced horses over the favorite over a few other mid priced horses with a long shot or two to round out the field.
Pay particular attention to horses that are in the range of 3-1 to 8-1 if you want to make money betting on horses and playing trifectas. They are overlooked by the favorites players and eschewed by the long shot Louies and Louisas.
As your total losses add up you realize that the big score is thrilling but the long wait between hits is not for the weak hearted or impatient bettor. Switching your focus to short priced horses or even, heavens forbid, favorites, will result in more wins, but as we all know exotic bets with the favorite usually don't pay well and once again, your cost to buy your tickets will probably outweigh your winnings.
Let's take a closer look at how people wager to get a better idea of what might possibly be a profitable betting strategy. First of all, generally speaking, what is true of the win pools is also true of the exotic pools. The way handicappers wager on horses in the straight pools is how they usually wager in the exotics. In fact, many people who are casual players will look at the odds on the tote board in order to choose runners for their trifecta and superfecta bets.
Studies have shown that their are two betting interests that are usually over bet. I would go one step farther and add that they are also used too often in exotics and therefore it is hard to find good value if you key on them. I am talking about long shots and favorites. If you want horses that are more fairly priced and valued closer to their true odds based on the probability of placing in the top three, look for middle priced horses.
I'm not saying that you should never play a longshot or chalk (favorite), but I am saying, that most of your focus should be on those horses that fall into the sweet spot somewhere between. For instance, in a race where the favorite is at 6-5 odds it is tempting to key that one on top over a few longshots. It seems that the chalk is the most likely winner, which it is, and it also seems that those long shots do have a possibility of hitting the board and therefore creating a good payoff in spite of the favorite prevailing.
Half of that logic is correct. The long priced horses do have a chance, albeit a slight one, of completing the trifecta, however, you are not the only one to make that assumption. Remember that those long priced horses are often over bet even though they are at long odds. A more realistic bet with value in mind might be to key one of the mid priced horses over the favorite over a few other mid priced horses with a long shot or two to round out the field.
Pay particular attention to horses that are in the range of 3-1 to 8-1 if you want to make money betting on horses and playing trifectas. They are overlooked by the favorites players and eschewed by the long shot Louies and Louisas.
0 comments:
Post a Comment